NEW CANAAN, Conn. — Shoppers who deleveraged and saved during the recession will propel retail to a robust spending year in 2012, according to a new forecast from Customer Growth Partners here.
Retail sales will increase by 5.7% for the year, CGP predicted, saying it would represent the fastest year-over-year growth since a “bubble-inflated” 6% increase in 2005.
“The difference from the bubble years is that the growth we now see is based on current cash flow — i.e. income — rather than tapping home equity or credit cards,” Craig Johnson, president of CGP, said in a statement. “Consumers used the rigors of the recession to put their household balance sheets on a diet, so now we have a healthier — and sustainable — spending pattern, boding well for 2012 and beyond.”
Johnson said falling household and credit debt levels and higher savings rates should spark sales, despite anemic GDP growth and continued high levels of unemployment, noting that the 91% of people with jobs account for 97% of U.S. spending
CGP, which in November predicted 6.5% retail sales growth over the 2011 holiday season, said actual figures showed 6.3% growth. GCP figures are based on U.S. Department of Commerce data excluding gasoline, automobiles and foodservice, but including ecommerce estimates.
