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INDUSTRY MONITORS BIRD FLU OUTBREAK

WASHINGTON -- If supermarkets and the U.S. poultry industry can make it through the next five weeks without any sign of bird flu spreading here, they'll truly have something to be thankful for come Thanksgiving.As the biggest turkey-selling period of the year approaches, both industries are keeping their fingers crossed that the virus will stay contained in Asia and Eastern Europe."I think all of

WASHINGTON -- If supermarkets and the U.S. poultry industry can make it through the next five weeks without any sign of bird flu spreading here, they'll truly have something to be thankful for come Thanksgiving.

As the biggest turkey-selling period of the year approaches, both industries are keeping their fingers crossed that the virus will stay contained in Asia and Eastern Europe.

"I think all of us in the retail community are following this very closely," said Craig Wilson, assistant vice president of food safety for Costco Wholesale, Issaquah, Wash. "The economic impact of an outbreak could be devastating, so this is something I'm looking at every day. We're working closely with our poultry suppliers to get a better understanding of what the potential is for it coming here."

The poultry industry, along with poultry disease experts, paints a reassuring picture. Representatives contend that U.S. poultry operations are structured in such a way that strong biosecurity firewalls would quickly block the spread of the so-called bird flu.

The emergence of a highly pathogenic form of the influenza -- H5N1 -- in Asia, and its recent spread to Turkey, Romania and Greece, has heightened fears about the vulnerability of the United States. The virus has claimed millions of poultry in the affected countries and appears to have made a limited jump to humans.

Though stopping short of saying it could never gain a foothold here, trade associations for poultry producers said time-tested biosecurity procedures are in place to isolate the virus and limit its impact.

"If it were to show up, industry and the government would respond immediately," said Richard Lobb, communications director for the National Chicken Council, Washington. "Any flock in which it showed up would be destroyed, and none of the birds would go to market."

The National Turkey Federation insists the risk of the virus entering this country is minimal, since the United States does not import turkey or chicken.

"The turkey that people are going to be eating for Thanksgiving this year was raised and processed here, where much stronger biosecurity is in place," said Sherrie Rosenblatt, spokeswoman for the Washington-based group.

Though a spread of the highly pathogenic strain of bird flu to the West poses the threat of a human pandemic, the most likely immediate impact would be economic.

In a worst-case scenario, tens of millions of birds might have to be destroyed in an effort to contain the spread of the virus. That could easily translate into a major disruption of supply and demand, which also would be fed by heightened public concerns about consuming poultry. Even though thorough cooking destroys the virus, headlines could send consumers running.

If domestic demand wasn't appreciably affected, domestic supplies could conceivably keep pace even if producers were forced into major flock-destruction programs, said Dustan Clark, extension poultry veterinarian for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture's Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service, Fayetteville.

"If there was an outbreak here and it was big enough to lead to a mass destruction of birds, over time there could be an effect on supply," Clark said. "If that were to occur, we'd probably see some shutdown of the export market, which accounts for about 20% of U.S. production. Products taken out of export could fill some of the gap domestically."

The likelihood of massive flock destructions, however, is remote because of the way the U.S. poultry industry is structured. Poultry operations are highly secure, and flocks are kept together and isolated from other flocks from the time they're hatched until the time they're processed. This means any outbreaks would probably be localized and readily contained.

Because of the potentially devastating economic fallout from a disease outbreak, the U.S. poultry industry has been built around a laser-like focus on keeping birds isolated, said Carol Cardona, poultry extension veterinarian with the University of California-Davis.

"Most of our modern poultry facilities have a lot of security aimed at protecting birds from diseases brought in by other people and other animals," she said. "They're kept indoors and away from migrating waterfowl, which can carry diseases, and visitors are routinely protected from people who've come into contact with poultry at other farms."

That careful approach has proven its mettle in Singapore, Cardona said. Though surrounded by countries whose poultry industries have routinely been plagued by disease outbreaks, Singapore's poultry industry has been an island of calm because of painstaking efforts to follow tight biosecurity procedures.

"They've been surrounded by this virus for a decade, but they haven't had any bird flu instances," she said.

The U.S. industry's security system has performed under fire as well. Clark said low-pathogenic strains of bird flu that turned up in some areas of the United States in 2002 and 2004 were quickly isolated and controlled, resulting in little economic impact.

Still, the highly pathogenic nature of the H5N1 virus and the significance of poultry to the U.S. food supply means the industry can't relax.

"We don't want to sugarcoat this issue," Cardona said.

"Biologically, this virus can still get into this country," she said. "The stakes are high economically and for public health, so this issue is worth continuing to think about."