Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale kicks off tomorrow, and the consumer packaged goods (CPG) market stands to be one of the beneficiaries of the expected surge in online shopping.
Numerator said the Oct. 11 and 12 Prime Early Access Sale will continue to spur Amazon’s growth in CPG market share, which the consumer market data specialist estimated at over 20% during the Prime Day 2022 sales event on July 12 and 13.
Amazon’s CPG share jumps four- to fivefold on Prime Day each year, according to Numerator. In 2022, the e-tail giant’s CPG share stood at 4.9% in the month before Prime Day, 5.6% the month of Prime Day and 21.7% on Prime Day itself — representing more than $1 in $5 of U.S. spending on consumer goods. The researcher added that Amazon’s day-of CPG share has expanded with each Prime Day, growing to 19.1% on Prime Day 2021 from 18.3% on Prime Day 2020.
“Prime Day is increasingly a consumer goods holiday and is poised to capture new categories this holiday season,” Numerator explained. “Amazon sales events were historically known for their consumer electronics sales, but on Prime Day 2022, 17% of shoppers bought groceries, and household and grocery items landed in the top items purchased for the first time.”
Amazon said it’s holding the Prime Early Access Sale to give members of its Prime customer benefits program a head-start on holiday shopping season with hundreds of thousands of deals. Though not primarily focused on consumables, the sales event presents a strong buying occasion for shoppers seeking savings on seasonal CPGs because of its second-week-of-October timing.
“If deals are available, consumers are likely to use this Prime event to stock up on Halloween candy, Thanksgiving non-perishables and holiday baking ingredients,” Numerator noted. “When Prime Day was held in October in 2020, Amazon saw share growth for Halloween candy, variety packs (chips), trail mix, nutrition and wholesome bars, popcorn, chips and packaged cookies compared to both the prior month and October 13-14, 2021 (accounting for seasonality).”
Overall, Chicago-based Numerator said, the Amazon Prime Early Access Sale stands to set new records in household penetration and average household spend. Almost one in three U.S. consumers is expected to shop during this Prime sale. Numerator reported that 29.9% of Americans shopped on Prime Day 2022 versus 27.4% in 2021 and 27% in 2020.
Average household spend is projected to top the $200 mark for the first time, up from $197.92 on Prime Day 2022, $156.69 on Prime Day 2021 and $158.55 on Prime Day 2020. The higher number, in part, will reflect early holiday spending and elevated prices due to inflation, Numerator noted.
Amazon Prime Day siphons share from smaller and major retailers, the researcher said. On Prime Day 2022, smaller retailers collectively saw an 11.8% CPG share decrease compared with the previous month. Walmart saw a total store decline of 3%, followed by Kroger (-1.5%) and Costco Wholesale (-1%). Target, which runs its Deal Days event at the same time, saw a 0.5% share uptick on Prime Day.
Despite triggering early holiday shopping, the Prime Early Access Sale isn’t likely to cannibalize Amazon’s holiday traffic, Numerator added. During the fall 2020 Prime Day sale, 29% of consumers said they used the event for holiday shopping, and 90% planned to shop on Amazon again in advance of the holidays.
Numerator’s Prime Day projections are based on its TruView omnichannel share data, sourced from the Numerator Measurement Panel of over 1 million households. CPG segments covered include grocery, household products, health and beauty care, pet supplies and baby care.