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We’re already seeing grocery prices on the rise in May

Early grocery index numbers are steepest for cereals and bakery products


  • There is an overall increase of 0.78% in prices from April to early May
  • The steepest increase was observed in the cereals and bakery products segments at 1.05%
  • Prices of dairy and related products increased by 0.89% whereas the prices of fruits and vegetables increased by 0.69%

Many shoppers are likely happy to see inflation starting to slow down for several straight months in a row now, however, it is hard to ignore the unprecedented increase in prices over the last year in the overall food-at-home segment (including grocery store and supermarket food purchases), which rose by 13% over the previous 12 months.

While retailers and consumers alike are closely watching grocery inflation numbers, a new report from AI solutions company Impact Analytics, which aims to track price movements of key grocery items across the U.S. on a higher frequency than Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Pricing insights from the last few weeks show a marginal increase of 0.78% in prices from April through early May, according to the report. 

What the numbers are saying

The steepest increase (1.05%) was observed in cereals and bakery products. Dairy and related products saw an increase in price by 0.89%, while the prices of fruits and vegetables increased by 0.69%.

What’s more, the prices reported for discretionary plant-based, carbohydrate-rich and fat-rich products show a continued rise at a faster pace than other segments (0.55% month-over-month).
Carbohydrate-rich products have increased by 0.51% while prices for protein-rich products have increased by 0.30%. 

On the other hand, fat-rich products have grown at a comparatively slower pace of 0.23%, and growth in prices for non-healthy products (0.44% month-over-month) slightly outpaced that of healthy products (0.38% month-over-month). 

Prices for non-plant-based products increased at a slightly faster pace of 0.43% than plant-based products, which saw an increase of 0.32%.

As noted previously and based on months of trending data, the report indicates that all segments observed a marginal increase in prices from April through early May. 

The prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs increased slightly by 0.21% during this period. And nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials experienced an increase of 0.84%, whereas the "other food at home" segment observed a moderate increase of 1%.

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