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Amazon to hurdle Walmart as biggest U.S. retailer by 2024

Online grocery sales up 117% on two-year stack, Edge by Ascential reports

Russell Redman

June 2, 2022

4 Min Read
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Between 2021 and 2026, Amazon stands to grow its U.S. retail market share from 10.8% to 14.9%, whereas Walmart’s share will shrink from 13.2% to 12.7%, Edge by Ascential projected.Russell Redman

Amazon will surpass Walmart as the largest U.S. retailer by 2024, as the online channel ramps up its share of overall retail sales dollars, CPG market researcher Edge by Ascential predicts.

Between 2021 and 2026, Amazon stands to add more than $294 billion in U.S. sales and grow its U.S. retail market share from 10.8% to 14.9%, whereas Walmart’s share will shrink from 13.2% to 12.7%, Boston-based Edge by Ascential forecast in its “2022 United States Retail Landscape and Go-to-Market Planning Report,” released yesterday. Sales figures are calculated using gross merchandise value (GMV).

Edge by Ascential-largest US chain retailers 2021-2022 US Retail Landscape report.pngOverall North American chain retail sales came in at $3.69 trillion in 2021, including $837.5 billion in grocery sales. (Image courtesy of Edge by Ascential)

Walmart ($488 billion) and (Amazon $398.8 billion) were far and away the biggest U.S. chain retailers by 2021 sales, followed by The Kroger Co. ($146.7 billion) and Costco Wholesale ($140.8 billion), according to Edge by Ascential. Rounding out the top 10 were The Home Depot ($137.6 billion), Walgreens ($117.4 billion), Target ($107.5 billion), CVS Health ($105.5 billion), Lowe’s ($92.2 billion) and Albertsons Cos. ($74.6 billion). 

Amazon leads with an estimated five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.7% in chain retail sales for the 2021-26 period, well above the next-closest retailer in CAGR — Costco — at 7.8%. Coming after those companies by five-year CAGR were Home Depot (5.5%), Target (4.8%), Walgreens (4.6%), Walmart (3.5%), Kroger (3.3%), CVS (3.1%), Lowe’s (2.7%) and Albertsons (1.6%).

Related:Grocery comes of age as ‘major’ online retail category

Of the top six retailers besides Walmart and Amazon, companies projected to grow their share of chain retail sales during the 2021-26 period include Costco (from 3.8% to 4.4%) and Home Depot (from 3.7% to 3.9%), Edge by Ascential’s study said. Walgreens’ share is expected to remain at 3.2% and Kroger’s to dip from 4% to 3.7%.

Retailers in the food, drug and mass retail channel will get less of a lift from online grocery going forward after the pandemic-triggered sales boom in 2020-21, Edge by Ascential noted. 

The U.S. e-grocery market is slated to add $34.7 billion from 2021 to 2026. Last year, online edible grocery sales totaled $54.8 billion, up 117% from 2019, before the pandemic. Walmart, Target, Kroger and Costco accounted for about half of U.S. online edible grocery penetration in 2021, which is expected to edge up from 6.5% to 8.8% by 2026. At the same time, online grocery’s five-year CAGR is forecast to drop from 38.9% in 2021 to 10.3% in 2026. 

Related:Walmart, Amazon lead as consumers’ online grocers of choice

“Inflationary pressures continue to cut into retailer margins, both in the U.S. and abroad, while rising labor rates, increased material costs and higher fuel prices across all supply chains impact suppliers, retailers and consumers,” Deren Baker, CEO of Edge by Ascential, said in a statement. “Despite these challenges, data from Edge by Ascential shows that e-commerce will continue to be the largest driver of retail growth over the next few years in the U.S. and worldwide.”

Indeed, e-commerce continues be the chief retail growth catalyst, the report noted. In 2021, U.S. online sales rose 15.2% to $907.7 billion from $787 billion in 2020, twice the growth of overall retail sales, which climbed 7.6% last year. The overall online channel is expected to surmount $1 trillion by the end of 2022 and, by 2026, represent 30.5% of total retail sales, up from 24.6% in 2021, making the United States the second-largest global e-commerce market after China. 

“Amazon has always taken advantage of its head start as a digital-first platform and has been a pioneer of almost all the growth levers associated with platform-based retail from ‘subscribe and save’ through Prime membership to the evolving media and marketing services Amazon offers to brands,” Baker added. “Therefore, it’s not a huge surprise that by gross merchandise value sales, our AI-powered forecasting software on Edge Retail Insight anticipates Amazon to overtake Walmart as the largest retailer in the U.S. by 2024.” 

Edge by Ascential projects total chain retail share growth only in the e-commerce (24.6% to 30.5%) and cash-and-carry/club (6.2% to 6.5%) from 2021 to 2026. Retail channels predicted to see declines in that time span include supermarkets (13.8% to 12.4%), hyperstores (12.5% to 11.3%), pharmacy/health (6.7% to 6.2%), foodservice (6.4% to 5.8%), discount (4.0% to 3.9%) and convenience (2.7% to 2.5%).

Total North American chain retail sales came in at $3.69 trillion in 2021, including $907.7 billion in e-commerce sales (24.6% penetration) and $837.5 billion in grocery sales, Edge by Ascential reported. Chain sales accounted for 95% of food retail and 95% of overall retail.

About the Author

Russell Redman

Senior Editor
Supermarket News

Russell Redman has served as senior editor at Supermarket News since April 2018, his second tour with the publication. In his current role, he handles daily news coverage for the SN website and contributes news and features for the print magazine, as well as participates in special projects, podcasts and webinars and attends industry events. Russ joined SN from Racher Press Inc.’s Chain Drug Review and Mass Market Retailers magazines, where he served as desk/online editor for more than nine years, covering the food/drug/mass retail sector. 

Russell Redman’s more than 30 years of experience in journalism span a range of editorial manager, editor, reporter/writer and digital roles at a variety of publications and websites covering a breadth of industries, including retailing, pharmacy/health care, IT, digital home, financial technology, financial services, real estate/commercial property, pro audio/video and film. He started his career in 1989 as a local news reporter and editor, covering community news and politics in Long Island, N.Y. His background also includes an earlier stint at Supermarket News as center store editor and then financial editor in the mid-1990s. Russ holds a B.A. in journalism (minor in political science) from Hofstra University, where he also earned a certificate in digital/social media marketing in November 2016.

Russell Redman’s experience:

Supermarket News - Informa
Senior Editor 
April 2018 - present

Chain Drug Review/Mass Market Retailers - Racher Press
Desk/Online Editor 
Sept. 2008 - March 2018

CRN magazine - CMP Media
Managing Editor
May 2000 - June 2007

Bank Systems & Technology - Miller Freeman
Executive Editor/Managing Editor
Dec. 1996 - May 2000

Supermarket News - Fairchild Publications
Financial Editor/Associate Editor
April 1995 - Dec. 1996 

Shopping Centers Today Magazine - ICSC 
Desk Editor/Assistant Editor
Dec. 1992 - April 1995

Testa Communications
Assistant Editor/Contributing Editor (Music & Sound Retailer, Post, Producer, Sound & Communications and DJ Times magazines)
Jan. 1991 - Dec. 1992 

American Banker/Bond Buyer
Copy Editor
Oct. 1990 - Jan. 1991 

This Week newspaper - Chanry Communications
Reporter/Editor
May 1989 - July 1990

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