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Amazon to snare over 20% CPG share during Prime Day

Brick-and-mortar retailers big and small to feel the impact, Numerator forecasts

Russell Redman

July 5, 2022

4 Min Read
Amazon Prime Day 2022 website=banner.png
Amazon’s CPG share growth increases every Prime Day and is slated to rise from 19.1% last year to over 20% this year, according to consumer market data specialist Numerator.Amazon

E-tail giant Amazon stands to capture a more than 20% share of consumer packaged goods (CPG) dollars during its annual two-day Prime Day event next week, consumer market data specialist Numerator predicts.

Amazon has set the 48-hour Prime Day 2022 sales event for July 12 and 13. Within eight days of the June 30 announcement, nearly half of U.S. consumers were aware of Prime Day, Numerator reported. And with 53% of U.S. households as Prime members and almost two-thirds of shoppers polled planning to shop the sale, Amazon is positioned to snare a record-high CPG share this Prime Day, the research firm said. 

Amazon’s CPG share growth grows every Prime Day, according to Numerator. Day-of CPG share rose from 16.2% on Prime Day 2019 to 18.3% on Prime Day 2020 and then to 19.1% on Prime Day 2021. Even though growth has recently slowed — 0.8 points from 2020 to 2021 versus 2.1 points from 2019 to 2020 — day-of CPG share is expected to top 20% on Prime Day 2022, Numerator forecast.

Of consumers aware of Prime Day 2022, 65% said they plan to participate in the event, while another 30% indicated they might shop on Prime Day. Five percent said they don’t plan to participate.

Numerator Prime Day 2022 forecast-participation-purchase intent.png

Numerator noted that although the entire month containing Prime Day sees a modest share gain compared with the previous month, Amazon’s day-of share on Prime Day is on average four to five time higher than its typical range. For example, in 2021, Amazon’s CPG share was 4.7% in the month before Prime Day, 5.7% the month of Prime Day and 19.1% during Prime Day.

Related:Amazon turns in record Prime Day, despite lower growth

The online sales bonanza also siphons share from brick-and-mortar retailers, especially from smaller players. On Prime Day 2021, smaller retailers saw a 10.5 point CPG share decline versus the prior month, whereas Walmart saw an in-store decline of 2.1 points, followed by CPG share decreases of 1.4 points at Kroger and 1.2 points at Costco, Numerator said. Target.com saw a share lift of 0.8 points on Prime Day.

Amazon takes a bite in baby and household product share from Walmart during Prime Day, according to Numerator. On Prime Day, Amazon sees share gains of 3.8 points in the household segment and 3.7 points in the baby sector, grabbing share most heavily from Walmart, which sees share declines of 1.4 points and 1.7 points in those categories, respectively, the researcher reported.

Numerator’s Prime Day projections are based on its TruView omnichannel share data sourced from the 1 million-plus household Numerator Measurement Panel and the Numerator pre-Prime Day 2022 survey, a weekly poll of Amazon shoppers leading up to Prime Day. To date, the survey (Wave 2) has been fielded to 1,437 people, most recently on June 23. Product sectors covered include grocery, household products, health and beauty care, pet supplies and baby care.

Related:Grocery plays its part in Amazon Prime Day

“Consumers are more accustomed to buying their everyday goods online,” Numerator CEO Eric Belcher said in a statement. “This year on Prime Day, consumers will be looking for deals on essential goods in addition to electronics and gifts. Successful brands will leverage timely consumer data to meet the consumer where they are.”

Other key findings of Numerator’s Prime Day 2022 research include the following:

• As of June 24, 47% of Amazon shoppers knew the dates of Prime Day 2022, and 28% said they were informed on the day that Prime Day was announced. Also, Prime Day awareness is much higher than that for Walmart Weekend. Of Walmart.com shoppers polled, 33% said they were aware of the Walmart Weekend sale event as it was taking place.

• Consumers indicated that they’ll use Prime Day to jump-start back-to-school and holiday shopping. Among respondents, 22% of Prime Day shoppers said they plan to purchase gifts for birthdays, anniversaries and other special occasions; 18% plan to buy gifts for the holiday season; and 10% plan to purchase back-to-school items. 

• About one in five consumers are waiting for Prime Day sales on big-ticket items. Numerator’s research found that, among those planning to shop on Prime Day, 17% aim to purchase higher-priced items that they would only buy on sale. 

Meanwhile, financial concerns are discouraging some Amazon shoppers from taking part in Prime Day. Among Amazon shoppers who don’t plan to participate in Prime Day 2022, the top three reasons cited were a focus on saving money (39%), inflation/rising prices (36%) and lack of sales on specific items (34%). 

About the Author

Russell Redman

Senior Editor
Supermarket News

Russell Redman has served as senior editor at Supermarket News since April 2018, his second tour with the publication. In his current role, he handles daily news coverage for the SN website and contributes news and features for the print magazine, as well as participates in special projects, podcasts and webinars and attends industry events. Russ joined SN from Racher Press Inc.’s Chain Drug Review and Mass Market Retailers magazines, where he served as desk/online editor for more than nine years, covering the food/drug/mass retail sector. 

Russell Redman’s more than 30 years of experience in journalism span a range of editorial manager, editor, reporter/writer and digital roles at a variety of publications and websites covering a breadth of industries, including retailing, pharmacy/health care, IT, digital home, financial technology, financial services, real estate/commercial property, pro audio/video and film. He started his career in 1989 as a local news reporter and editor, covering community news and politics in Long Island, N.Y. His background also includes an earlier stint at Supermarket News as center store editor and then financial editor in the mid-1990s. Russ holds a B.A. in journalism (minor in political science) from Hofstra University, where he also earned a certificate in digital/social media marketing in November 2016.

Russell Redman’s experience:

Supermarket News - Informa
Senior Editor 
April 2018 - present

Chain Drug Review/Mass Market Retailers - Racher Press
Desk/Online Editor 
Sept. 2008 - March 2018

CRN magazine - CMP Media
Managing Editor
May 2000 - June 2007

Bank Systems & Technology - Miller Freeman
Executive Editor/Managing Editor
Dec. 1996 - May 2000

Supermarket News - Fairchild Publications
Financial Editor/Associate Editor
April 1995 - Dec. 1996 

Shopping Centers Today Magazine - ICSC 
Desk Editor/Assistant Editor
Dec. 1992 - April 1995

Testa Communications
Assistant Editor/Contributing Editor (Music & Sound Retailer, Post, Producer, Sound & Communications and DJ Times magazines)
Jan. 1991 - Dec. 1992 

American Banker/Bond Buyer
Copy Editor
Oct. 1990 - Jan. 1991 

This Week newspaper - Chanry Communications
Reporter/Editor
May 1989 - July 1990

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