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Amazon’s CPG share growth increases every Prime Day and is slated to rise from 19.1% last year to over 20% this year, according to consumer market data specialist Numerator.

Amazon to snare over 20% CPG share during Prime Day

Brick-and-mortar retailers big and small to feel the impact, Numerator forecasts

E-tail giant Amazon stands to capture a more than 20% share of consumer packaged goods (CPG) dollars during its annual two-day Prime Day event next week, consumer market data specialist Numerator predicts.

Amazon has set the 48-hour Prime Day 2022 sales event for July 12 and 13. Within eight days of the June 30 announcement, nearly half of U.S. consumers were aware of Prime Day, Numerator reported. And with 53% of U.S. households as Prime members and almost two-thirds of shoppers polled planning to shop the sale, Amazon is positioned to snare a record-high CPG share this Prime Day, the research firm said. 

Amazon’s CPG share growth grows every Prime Day, according to Numerator. Day-of CPG share rose from 16.2% on Prime Day 2019 to 18.3% on Prime Day 2020 and then to 19.1% on Prime Day 2021. Even though growth has recently slowed — +0.8 points from 2020 to 2021 versus +2.1 points from 2019 to 2020 — day-of CPG share is expected to top 20% on Prime Day 2022, Numerator forecast.

Of consumers aware of Prime Day 2022, 65% said they plan to participate in the event, while another 30% indicated they might shop on Prime Day. Five percent said they don’t plan to participate.

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Numerator noted that although the entire month containing Prime Day sees a modest share gain compared with the previous month, Amazon’s day-of share on Prime Day is on average four to five time higher than its typical range. For example, in 2021, Amazon’s CPG share was 4.7% in the month before Prime Day, 5.7% the month of Prime Day and 19.1% during Prime Day.

The online sales bonanza also siphons share from brick-and-mortar retailers, especially from smaller players. On Prime Day 2021, smaller retailers saw a 10.5 point CPG share decline versus the prior month, whereas Walmart saw an in-store decline of 2.1 points, followed by CPG share decreases of 1.4 points at Kroger and 1.2 points at Costco, Numerator said. saw a share lift of +0.8 points on Prime Day.

Amazon takes a bite in baby and household product share from Walmart during Prime Day, according to Numerator. On Prime Day, Amazon sees share gains of 3.8 points in the household segment and +3.7 points in the baby sector, grabbing share most heavily from Walmart, which sees share declines of 1.4 points and 1.7 points in those categories, respectively, the researcher reported.

Numerator’s Prime Day projections are based on its TruView omnichannel share data sourced from the 1 million-plus household Numerator Measurement Panel and the Numerator pre-Prime Day 2022 survey, a weekly poll of Amazon shoppers leading up to Prime Day. To date, the survey (Wave 2) has been fielded to 1,437 people, most recently on June 23. Product sectors covered include grocery, household products, health and beauty care, pet supplies and baby care.

“Consumers are more accustomed to buying their everyday goods online,” Numerator CEO Eric Belcher said in a statement. “This year on Prime Day, consumers will be looking for deals on essential goods in addition to electronics and gifts. Successful brands will leverage timely consumer data to meet the consumer where they are.”

Other key findings of Numerator’s Prime Day 2022 research include the following:

• As of June 24, 47% of Amazon shoppers knew the dates of Prime Day 2022, and 28% said they were informed on the day that Prime Day was announced. Also, Prime Day awareness is much higher than that for Walmart+ Weekend. Of shoppers polled, 33% said they were aware of the Walmart+ Weekend sale event as it was taking place.

• Consumers indicated that they’ll use Prime Day to jump-start back-to-school and holiday shopping. Among respondents, 22% of Prime Day shoppers said they plan to purchase gifts for birthdays, anniversaries and other special occasions; 18% plan to buy gifts for the holiday season; and 10% plan to purchase back-to-school items. 

• About one in five consumers are waiting for Prime Day sales on big-ticket items. Numerator’s research found that, among those planning to shop on Prime Day, 17% aim to purchase higher-priced items that they would only buy on sale. 

Meanwhile, financial concerns are discouraging some Amazon shoppers from taking part in Prime Day. Among Amazon shoppers who don’t plan to participate in Prime Day 2022, the top three reasons cited were a focus on saving money (39%), inflation/rising prices (36%) and lack of sales on specific items (34%). 

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